Network modeling and stability improvement of the water-energy-fertilizer-food nexus flows based on global agricultural trade (Xiuli Liu)

　　Water, energy, fertilizer and food are vital for sustainable development, yet their nexuses within various agricultural trade patterns remain ambiguous. Therefore, we analyzed the nexus of these four elements in the global trade of both total and basic agricultural products, focusing on exporting countries from 2000 to 2019. Our approach involved coupling models, complex network analysis and mathematical programming. The results showed that: (1) In the total agricultural trade nexus flows, the export-import flow pairs with the highest average nexus of continents changed from Europe-Europe to Oceania-Asia. Netherlands-Germany maintained the export-import flow pairs with the highest nexus of countries. In the basic agricultural trade nexus flows, Oceania-Asia maintained the highest average nexus export-import flow pairs of continents. Denmark-Germany maintained the export-import flow pairs with the highest nexus of countries. (2) The basic agricultural trade nexus flows network exhibited the higher density and average clustering coefficient. Argentina, Brazil and Canada played pivotal roles in maintaining high closeness centrality. Congo, Dominican Republic and Bosnia and Herzegovina displayed considerable potential on the indirectness of the network with high eigenvector centrality. (3) To improve the stability of the nexus flows network, taking the total agricultural trade nexus of the US, Netherlands and China as examples, the main largest beneficiary countries were Vanuatu, Eswatini and Saint Lucia. Taking the basic agricultural trade nexus of Canada, Brazil and China as examples, the main largest beneficiary countries were Kiribati and Niue. This study utilizes coupling and network models to analyze agricultural trade nexus flows, offering a deeper understanding of the complex nexus relationships within various agricultural trade patterns. Furthermore, the findings serve as a reference point for the formulation of strategies promoting sustainable development.

　　Publication:

　　Sustainable Production and Consumption 39, 480-494 (2023).

　　https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2023.05.034

　　Authors:

　　Songhua Huan

　　Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

　　University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

　　Xiuli Liu

　　Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

　　University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

　　Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China

　　Email: xiuli.liu@amss.ac.cn